Episodes
Thursday Apr 11, 2024
Why are markets breaking out and broadening?
Thursday Apr 11, 2024
Thursday Apr 11, 2024
Global markets are broadening out now and as equity values rise this wealth is helping to generate economic stimulus in several ways, which we explore here.
Monday Mar 11, 2024
Why is global economic growth so resilient?
Monday Mar 11, 2024
Monday Mar 11, 2024
Global economic growth has been resilient while inflation has been slowing. We look at the reasons for this and why central banks are under pressure to balance growth and inflation.
Thursday Feb 08, 2024
Will elections in 2024 impact your investments
Thursday Feb 08, 2024
Thursday Feb 08, 2024
In 2024, voters will go to the polls in a record 77 countries. We explore how they will impact economies and stock markets. We also consider how supply chains and shipping routes are affected following Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea.
Thursday Jan 11, 2024
Why could equities outperform bonds?
Thursday Jan 11, 2024
Thursday Jan 11, 2024
Equities are set to outperform bonds, boosted by company sales growth and elevated profits. Bonds, meanwhile, should benefit from interest rate cuts, which could lead to higher bond prices. The Artificial Intelligence (AI) boom is expected to continue in 2024, but the US stock market should broaden out beyond this sector into unloved areas like energy and small caps.
Thursday Dec 07, 2023
Why have earnings beat expectations?
Thursday Dec 07, 2023
Thursday Dec 07, 2023
Despite global economic uncertainty, investors took comfort from an impressive set of company earnings in the third quarter of 2023. Gold has hit a high this month driven by an outbreak of optimism that US interest rates have now peaked. Equities rallied partly thanks to the Artificial Intelligence (AI) boom, but appetite for these stocks may not last.
Thursday Nov 02, 2023
The impact on financial markets from the Israel-Hamas conflict
Thursday Nov 02, 2023
Thursday Nov 02, 2023
In November’s episode of the Evelyn Partners Investment Podcast, Cherry Reynard and Daniel Casali look at the financial market implications of the conflict and the humanitarian crisis unfolding in the Middle East. The tragic loss of innocent, civilian lives in the region is shocking and our thoughts are first and foremost with all those affected. While the impact on the financial markets has been limited, it may have longer term implications for the oil price and the green energy transition.
Wednesday Oct 04, 2023
What’s next on inflation?
Wednesday Oct 04, 2023
Wednesday Oct 04, 2023
Until recently, inflation appeared to be in retreat. Central banks felt sufficiently confident to pause on interest rate hikes. However, a blip in the inflation figures has worried investors, who fear more US rate rises could emerge as a result. The main culprit has been oil prices, which have moved higher in response to supply cuts from OPEC,
Expectations are still for a ‘soft landing’ in the US, with any recession likely to be short-lived and shallow. The UK and Eurozone face greater economic headwinds, In the UK, employment data has seen a notable deterioration in recent months. Nevertheless, while recession is more likely, it is not expected to be deep or persistent.
Emerging markets have been pulled lower by the weakness of China this year. There is no imminent revival in sight for China, but other emerging markets have been doing well. Latin American countries have been cutting rates, while India has seen significant growth. There are plenty of idiosyncratic opportunities to exploit.
Tuesday Sep 05, 2023
Global economic growth shaking off any signs of slowing down
Tuesday Sep 05, 2023
Tuesday Sep 05, 2023
The services sector continues to drive growth in the global economy, despite rising interest rates. Spending on services is being driven by savings built up during the Covid era, and pent-up demand for areas such as travel and leisure activities. Along with resilient labour markets, this has continued to push up consumption.
In the near-term, there is no sign of this stopping. Unemployment is still low and consumers still have money to spend. Phenomenon such as Swiftonomics – the blockbusting billion dollar tour by Taylor Swift – have shown the consumer’s ongoing propensity to spend.
Manufacturing, however, remains on its knees, with little hope of a revival in the short-term. Nevertheless, CEOs may be encouraged by the recent equity market rally to revive investment in production, allowing the sector to recover.
Wednesday Aug 02, 2023
Is there room for tentative optimism?
Wednesday Aug 02, 2023
Wednesday Aug 02, 2023
The S&P 500 has just capped its longest winning streak in over a century, encouraged by better data on inflation, economic growth and corporate earnings. However, data remains volatile and it is possible that markets have moved too far too fast. Valuations now leave little margin for error.
July saw the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank raise rates once again, though many economists expect this to be the peak. However, central banks are keeping their options open and have made it clear they will respond to new data as it emerges.
There are also strains in the fixed income market, with credit spreads tightening as economic data improves. While there are still opportunities in both equity and fixed income markets, it argues for a selective and balanced approach to asset selection.
Tuesday Jul 04, 2023
Breaking the bad news cycle
Tuesday Jul 04, 2023
Tuesday Jul 04, 2023
With the S&P 500 up 20% since October 2022, another bull market has begun. To date, it has been led by a narrow group of technology companies, but there are signs it may broaden out in the months to come.
This may create momentum for global stock markets in the second half of the year, even as a recession looms. Consensus expectations are now for a less severe recession than was expected a year ago. Falling expectations of peak US interest rates have also helped stocks to rally too.
The weaker dollar may also be a swing factor for investors. Dollar depreciation is usually indicative of an improving global growth backdrop; it tends to depreciate at times of greater certainty on the economic outlook. These factors may combine to create a better outlook for stock markets in the remainder of the year.