Probable Causation

Amanda Agan talks about how sealing criminal records affects employment.
“Can you Erase the Mark of a Criminal Record? Labor Market Impacts of Criminal Record Remediation” by Amanda Agan, Andrew Garin, Dmitri Koustas, Alex Mas, and Crystal Yang.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
Probable Causation Episode 9: Michael Mueller-Smith
“Ban the Box, Criminal Records, and Racial Discrimination: A Field Experiment" by Amanda Agan and Sonja Starr.
Probable Causation Episode 8: Amanda Agan
"The mark of a criminal record" by Devah Pager.
"The edge of stigma: An experimental audit of the effects of low-level criminal records on employment" by Christopher Uggen, Mike Vuolo, Sarah Lageson, Ebony Ruhland, and Hilary K. Whitham.
"Does banning the box help ex-offenders get jobs? Evaluating the effects of a prominent example" by Evan K. Rose.
"The criminal and labor market impacts of incarceration" by Michael Mueller-Smith.
"Expungement of criminal convictions: An empirical study" by J.J. Prescott and Sonja Starr.
"Unmarked: Criminal Record Clearing and Employment Outcomes" by Jeffrey Selbin, Justin McCrary, and Joshua Epstein.
"America's paper prisons: The second chance gap" by Colleen Chien.
"Misdemeanor Prosecution" by Amanda Agan, Jennifer L. Doleac, and Anna Harvey.
Probable Causation Episode 51: Amanda Agan and Anna Harvey
"Labor Market Impacts of Reducing Felony Convictions" by Amanda Y. Agan, Andrew Garin, Dmitri K. Koustas, Alexandre Mas, and Crystal Yang.
"Is it time to let go of the past? Effect of clean slate regulation on employment and earnings" by Kabir Dasgupta, Keshar Ghimire, and Alexander Plum.
"Increasing the Demand for Workers with a Criminal Record" by Zoë Cullen, Will Dobbie, and Mitchell Hoffman.
Probable Causation Episode 71: Zoë Cullen
 

Oeindrila Dube talks about a cognitive behavioral training program for police.
“A Cognitive View of Policing” by Oeindrila Dube, Sandy Jo MacArthur, and Anuj Shah.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
"Thinking, fast and slow? Some field experiments to reduce crime and dropout in Chicago" by Sara B. Heller, Anuj K. Shah, Jonathan Guryan, Jens Ludwig, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Harold A. Pollack.
"Can You Build a Better Cop?" by Emily Owens, David Weisburd, Karen L. Amendola, and Geoffrey P. Alpert. 
"The Impacts of Implicit Bias Awareness Training in the NYPD" by Robert E. Worden, Sarah J. McLean, Robin S. Engel, Hannah Cochran, Nicholas Corsaro, Danielle Reynolds, Cynthia J. Najdowski, and Gabrielle T. Isaza. 
"The impact of implicit bias-oriented diversity training on police officers’ beliefs, motivations, and actions" by Calvin K. Lai and Jaclyn A. Lisnek.
"Does De-escalation Training Work?" by Robin S. Engel, Hannah D. McManus, and Tamara D. Herold. 
"Assessing the Impact of De-escalation Training on Police Behavior: Reducing Police Use of Force in the Louisville, KY Metro Police Department" by Robin S. Engel, Nicholas Corsaro, Gabrielle T. Isaza, and Hannah D. McManus.
“Reducing crime and violence: Experimental evidence from cognitive behavioral therapy in Liberia” by Christopher Blattman, Julian C. Jamison, and Margaret Sheridan.
"Can Recidivism Be Prevented From Behind Bars? Evidence From a Behavioral Program" by William Arbour.
Probable Causation Episode 102: William Arbour
"Peer Effects in Police Use of Force" by Justin E. Holz, Roman G. Rivera, and Bocar A. Ba.
"The Effect of Field Training Officers on Police Use of Force" by Chandon Adger, Matthew Ross, and CarlyWill Sloan.
Probable Causation Episode 90: Matthew Ross

Erich Muehlegger talks about the effect of air pollution on crime. This episode was first posted in September 2020.
"Air Pollution and Criminal Activity: Microgeographic Evidence from Chicago" by Evan Herrnstadt, Anthony Heyes, Erich Muehlegger, and Soodeh Saberian.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Crime Is in the Air: The Contemporaneous Relationship between Air Pollution and Crime” by Malvina Bondy, Sefi Roth, and Lutz Sager.
“The effect of pollution on crime: Evidence from data on particulate matter and ozone” by Jesse Burkhardt, Jude Bayham, Ander Wilson, Ellison Carter, Jesse D. Berman, Katelyn O’Dell, Bonne Ford, Emily V. Fischer, and Jeffrey R. Pierce.
“The Mortality and Medical Costs of Air Pollution: Evidence from Changes in Wind Direction” by Tatyana Deryugina, Garth Heutel, Nolan H. Miller, David Molitor, and Julian Reif.
“Airports, Air Pollution, and Contemporaneous Health” by Wolfram Schlenker and W. Reed Walker.
“Traffic Congestion and Infant Health: Evidence from E-ZPass” by Janet Currie and Reed Walker.
“As the Wind Blows: The Effects of Long-Term Exposure to Air Pollution on Mortality” by Michael L. Anderson.
“Air pollution and children's respiratory health: A cohort analysis” by Timothy K.M. Beatty and Jay P. Shimshack.
“Air Quality and Error Quantity: Pollution and Performance in a High-Skilled, Quality-Focused Occupation” by James Archsmith, Anthony Heyes, and Soodeh Saberian.
“The Long-Run Economic Consequences of High-Stakes Examinations: Evidence from Transitory Variation in Pollution” by Avraham Ebenstein, Victor Lavy, and Sefi Roth.

Aurelie Ouss talks about using insights from behavioral economics to reduce failures-to-appear in court. This episode was first posted in January 2020.
"Nudging Crime Policy: Reducing Failures to Appear for Court" by Alissa Fishbane, Aurelie Ouss, and Anuj K. Shah. (Available from the authors upon request.)
Related policy paper: "Using Behavioral Science to Improve Criminal Justice Outcomes: Preventing Failures to Appear in Court" by Brice Cook, Binta Zahra Diop, Alissa Fishbane, Jonathan Hayes, Aurelie Ouss, and Anuj Shah.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
"Bail, Jail, and Pretrial Misconduct: The Influence of Prosecutors" by Aurelie Ouss and Megan T. Stevenson.
“Distortion of Justice: How the Inability to Pay Bail Affects Case Outcomes” by Megan T. Stevenson.
“The Effects of Pretrial Detention on Conviction, Future Crime, and Employment: Evidence from Randomly Assigned Judges” by Will Dobbie, Jacob Goldin, and Crystal S. Yang.
“The Unintended Impact of Pretrial Detention on Case Outcomes: Evidence from New York City Arraignments” by Emily Leslie and Nolan G. Pope.
“The Downstream Consequences of Misdemeanor Pretrial Detention” by Paul Heaton, Sandra Mayson, and Megan Stevenson.
Episode 4 of Probable Causation: Megan Stevenson
"Thinking, Fast and Slow? Some Field Experiments to Reduce Crime and Dropout in Chicago" by Sara B. Heller, Anuj K. Shah, Jonathan Guryan, Jens Ludwig, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Harold A. Pollack.
“Behavioral Biases and Legal Compliance: A Field Experiment” by Natalia Emanuel and Helen Ho.

Marguerite Burns and Laura Dague talk about the effects of Medicaid enrollment on recidivism.
"In-Kind Welfare Benefits and Reincarceration Risk: Evidence from Medicaid" by Marguerite Burns and Laura Dague.
 
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
"Mental Health and Criminal Involvement: Evidence from Losing Medicaid Eligibility" by Elisa Jacome.
Probable Causation Episode 60: Elisa Jacome
“The consequences of Medicaid expansion under the Affordable Care Act for police arrests” by Jessica T. Simes and Jaquelyn L. Jahn.
“Public health insurance and impacts on crime incidences and mental health" by Kathryn L. Wagner.
"Access to health Care and Criminal Behavior: Evidence form the ACA Medicaid Expansions" by Jacob Vogler.
"The Effect of Health Insurance on Crime: Evidence from the Affordable Care Act Medicaid Expansion" by Qiwei He and Scott Bardowski.
"The Effect of Medicaid Expansion on Crime Reduction: Evidence from HIFA-Waiver Expansions" by Hefei Wen, Jason M. Hockenberry, and Janet R. Cummings.
"Does Public Assistance Reduce Recidivism?" by Crystal S. Yang.
“SNAP benefits and crime: Evidence from changing disbursement schedules” by Jillian B. Carr and Analisa Packham.
"Does emergency financial assistance reduce crime?" by Caroline Palmer, David C. Phillips, and James X. Sullivan.
“Does welfare prevent crime? The criminal justice outcomes of youth removed from SSI" by Manasi Deshpande and Michael Mueller-Smith.
Probable Causation Episode 72: Manasi Desphande
"Snapping Back: Food Stamp Bans and Criminal Recidivism" by Cody Tuttle.

William Arbour talks about how prison-based behavioral programs in Canada affect recidivism.
"Can Recidivism Be Prevented From Behind Bars? Evidence From a Behavioral Program" by William Arbour.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Thinking, fast and slow? Some field experiments to reduce crime and dropout in Chicago” by Sara B. Heller, Anuj K. Shah, Jonathan Guryan, Jens Ludwig, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Harold A. Pollack.
“Reducing crime and violence: Experimental evidence from cognitive behavioral therapy in Liberia” by Christopher Blattman, Julian C. Jamison, and Margaret Sheridan.
Probable Causation Episode 23: Lelys Dinarte.
"One Size Doesn’t Fit All – The Heterogeneous Effects of Prison Programs" by Michael LaForest-Tucker. [Working paper available from the author.]
"Can Restorative Justice Conferencing Reduce Recidivism? Evidence From the Make-it-Right Program" by Yotam Shem-Tov, Steven Raphael, and Alissa Skog.

Randi Hjalmarsson talks about how punishment severity affects juries' decisions to convict. This episode was first posted in June 2020.
"How Punishment Severity Affects Jury Verdicts: Evidence from Two Natural Experiments" by Anna Bindler and Randi Hjalmarsson.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Making the Crime Fit the Penalty: The Role of Prosecutorial Discretion under Mandatory Minimum Sentencing” by David Bjerk.
“The Impact of Jury Race in Criminal Trials” by Shamena Anwar, Patrick Bayer, and Randi Hjalmarsson.
“The Role of Age in Jury Selection and Trial Outcomes” by Shamena Anwar, Patrick Bayer, and Randi Hjalmarsson.
“A Jury of Her Peers: The Impact of the First Female Jurors on Criminal Verdicts” by Shamena Anwar, Patrick Bayer, and Randi Hjalmarsson.
“Politics in the Courtroom: Political Ideology and Jury Decision Making” by Shamena Anwar, Patrick Bayer, and Randi Hjalmarsson.
“No Hatred or Malice, Fear or Affection: Media and Sentencing” by Aurelie Ouss and Arnaud Philippe.
“Path Dependency in Jury Decision Making” by Anna Bindler and Randi Hjalmarsson.
“The Persistence of the Criminal Justice Gender Gap: Evidence from 200 Years of Judicial Decisions” by Anna Bindler and Randi Hjalmarsson.
“The Impact of the First Professional Police Forces on Crime” by Anna Bindler and Randi Hjalmarsson.
 
 

Sara Heller talks about summer youth employment programs.
"Summer Jobs Reduce Violence Among Disadvantaged Youth" by Sara B. Heller.
"Rethinking the Benefits of Youth Employment Programs: The Heterogeneous Effects of Summer Jobs" by Jonathan M.V. Davis and Sara B. Heller
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
"What Works? A Meta Analysis of Recent Active Labor Market Program Evaluations" by David Card, Jochen Kluve, and Andrea Weber.
"Active Labor Market Policies" by Bruno Crépon and Gerard J. van den Berg.
"Employment and Training Programs" by Robert J. LaLonde.
"The Promise of Public Sector-Sponsored Training Programs" by Robert J. LaLonde.
"The Youth Entitlement Demonstration: Subsidized Employment with a Schooling Requirement" by George Farkas, D. Alton Smith, and Ernst W. Stromsdorfer.
"A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of In-School and Summer Neighborhood Youth Corps: A Nationwide Evaluation" by Gerald G. Somers and Ernst W. Stromsdorfer.
"Summer Training and Education Program (STEP): Report on Long-Term Impacts" by Cynthia L. Sipe and Jean Baldwin Grossman.
"An Anatomy of a Demonstration: STEP from Pilot through Replication and Postprogram Impacts" by Frances Vilella-Velez and Gary Walker.
"The Summer Employment Experiences and the Personal/Social Behaviors of Youth Violence Prevention Employment Program Participants and Those of a Comparison Group" by Andrew Sum, Mykhaylo Trubskyy, and Walter McHugh.
"Enriching Summer Work: An Evaluation of the Summer Career Exploration Program" by Wendy S. McClanahan, Cynthia L. Sipe, and Thomas J. Smith.
"What Is a Summer Job Worth? The Impact of Summer Youth Employment on Academic Outcomes" by Jacob Leos-Urbel.
"Making Summer Matter: The Impact of Youth Employment on Academic Performance" by Amy Ellen Schwartz, Jacob Leos-Urbel, and Matt Wiswall.
"The Effects of Youth Employment: Evidence from New York City Lotteries" by Alexander Gelber, Adam Isen, and Judd B. Kessler.
"An Introduction to the World of Work: A Study of the Implementation and Impacts of New York City’s Summer Youth Employment Program" by Erin Jacobs Valentine, Chloe Anderson Golub, Farhana Hossain, and Rebecca Unterman.
"How Do Summer Youth Employment Programs Improve Criminal Justice Outcomes, and for Whom?" by Alicia Sasser Modestino.
"Reducing inequality summer by summer: Lessons from an evaluation of the Boston Summer Youth Employment Program" by Alicia Sasser Modestino and Richard J. Paulsen.
"School’s Out: How Summer Youth Employment Programs Impact Academic Outcomes" by Alicia Sasser Modestino and Richard Paulsen.

Xinming Du talks about how aggressive posts on social media affect offline violence.
“Symptom or Culprit? Social Media, Air Pollution, and Violence” by Xinming Du. 
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Experimental Evidence of Massive-Scale Emotional Contagion Through Social Networks” by Adam Kramer, Jamie Guillory, and Jeffrey Hancock.
“Social Media and Protest Participation: Evidence from Russia” by Ruben Enikolopov, Alexey Makarin, and Maria Petrova.
“Fanning the Flames of Hate: Social Media and Hate Crime” by Karsten Muller and Carlo Schwarz.
Episode 35 of Probable Causation: Erich Muehlegger
“Toxic Content and User Engagement on Social Media: Evidence from a Field Experiment” by George Beknazar-Yuzbashev, Rafael Jiménez Durán, Jesse McCrosky, and Mateusz Stalinski.
“Social Media and Mental Health” by Luca Braghieri, Ro’ee Levy, and Alexey Makarin.

Marina Gorzig and Deborah Rho talk about the effects of renter protection policies (including limits on landlords' use of criminal records) in Minneapolis. 
“The Impact of Renter Protection Policies on Housing Discrimination in Minneapolis” by Marina Gorzig and Deborah Rho.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“The Unintended Consequences of ‘Ban the Box’: Statistical Discrimination and Employment Outcomes when Criminal Histories are Hidden” by Jennifer Doleac and Benjamin Hansen.
“Ban the Box, Criminal Records, and Racial Discrimination: A Field Experiment” by Amanda Agan and Sonja Starr.
Episode 8 of Probable Causation: Amanda Agan.
“Discrimination and the Effects of Drug Testing on Black Employment” by Abigail Wozniak.
“Deleting a Signal: Evidence from Pre-Employment Credit Checks” by Alexander W. Bartik and Scott T. Nelson.
“Criminal Records and Housing: An Experimental Study” by Peter Leasure and Tara Martin.