Episodes
23 hours ago
The soft landing narrative (again)
23 hours ago
23 hours ago
Recent weeks have seen heightened optimism in financial markets that the global economy is on course for a soft landing. This optimism is rooted in a number of factors, including stronger-than-expected economic data, dovish communications from several central banks alongside tame inflation outcomes in Europe and Asia. In our charts this week we offer further perspective on this narrative. Specifically we look at:
· Broad money growth and equity markets
· The resilience of US capital spending
· Receding inflation expectations in the euro area
· Fading global supply chain pressures
· Equity market inflows in Asia
· India’s catch-up growth potential
Thursday Mar 21, 2024
Up, down, and somewhere in between
Thursday Mar 21, 2024
Thursday Mar 21, 2024
The decisions from several central banks this week have, on the whole, amplified hopes that the world economy remains on course for a soft landing. Investors were certainly reassured by the absence of big changes to the Fed's interest rate outlook as well as this week’s unexpected decision to cut interest rates by the Swiss National Bank. In our charts this week we examine:
· US interest rate expectations
· Japan’s interest rate differentials and the yen
· Core inflation in several advanced economies
· Emerging market growth surprises
· China’s credit impulse
· Equity market inflows in major economies
Thursday Mar 14, 2024
Not too shocking
Thursday Mar 14, 2024
Thursday Mar 14, 2024
With little to destabilise financial markets over the past few days, soft landing narratives have remained in vogue. While this week’s US CPI report was certainly a little stronger-than-anticipated, other indicators, including the latest UK labour market report, were more benign. In charts this week we look in more depth at:
· US Inflation drivers
· The health of the UK labour market
· Japan’s supply side drivers
· China’s EV penetration
· Consensus growth forecasts
· Economic shocks and the consensus
Friday Mar 08, 2024
Goldeneyes
Friday Mar 08, 2024
Friday Mar 08, 2024
The equity market rally that kicked off in late October has grabbed the financial headlines in recent weeks. And there has been an abundance of optimistic narratives that support the rally’s rationale and the prospects for an extension in the near term. In this week’s charts we provide some insights into some of these narratives. In particular we focus on:
· The renaissance in US manufacturing investment
· AI and the global semiconductor sector
· Positive global growth surprises
· A cooling US labour market
· Japan’s foreign investor inflows
· Cryptocurrencies
Thursday Feb 29, 2024
When the chips are up
Thursday Feb 29, 2024
Thursday Feb 29, 2024
Prospects for a swift pivot toward looser monetary policy in the US and Europe have been diminished by persistent inflationary pressures and stronger-than-expected labour market conditions over the past few weeks. Equity market sentiment in most major economies, however, has remained resilient, buoyed by a positive stream of corporate earnings news, especially from the technology sector. In our charts this week we focus on:
· Consumer confidence in the US and Europe
· US technological innovation
· Semiconductor inventories in Asia
· The Italian bond market
· Credit conditions in the euro area
· Internet sales in the UKRead the full publication here: https://haverproducts.com/charts-of-the-week/
Thursday Feb 22, 2024
Navigating cyclical and structural headwinds
Thursday Feb 22, 2024
Thursday Feb 22, 2024
A quiet economic calendar coupled with holidays in North America and much of Asia have left markets struggling for direction in recent days. A noteworthy development, nevertheless, was this week’s FOMC minutes which revealed concerns among some members about reducing US policy rates too soon. In our charts this week we home in on the following:
· Market expectations for Fed policy
· Inflation surprises and energy prices
· High frequency gauges of labour market activity
· Wage inflation in the euro area
· South Korea’s semiconductor trade
· Social progress in the world economyDownload the free publication here: https://haverproducts.com/?sdm_process_download=1&download_id=23413
Friday Feb 16, 2024
Inflation alarm
Friday Feb 16, 2024
Friday Feb 16, 2024
Stronger than expected US inflation data this week has dampened hopes that the Fed might swiftly reduce interest rates in the coming months. This comes on the heels of a flurry of firmer-than-expected US economic data in recent weeks that had previously undermined the case for an early pivot toward looser monetary policy. Still, as we illustrate in several of our charts this week, evidence is accumulating to suggest that tighter monetary policy is taking a toll on the world economy. This week we home in on:
· The UK and Japan’s recession phase
· The weakness of Japan’s domestic demand growth
· Labour market inactivity in the UK
· Consensus growth and inflation forecasts for 2024
· The shifting nature of the growth and inflation consensus
· US service sector inflation
Wednesday Feb 07, 2024
Producing versus consuming
Wednesday Feb 07, 2024
Wednesday Feb 07, 2024
Last week's surprisingly strong US employment report has diminished investors’ expectations that central banks would quickly shift to more relaxed monetary policies. Nonetheless, equity market sentiment across most major economies has remained resilient, buoyed by positive corporate earnings news. In our charts this week, we examine:
· Consensus forecasts for central bank policy
· US capacity pressures and inflation expectations
· Global supply chain pressures
· Global business cycle surveys
· Germany’s factory orders
· Australia’s retail spendingGet the free charts and commentary here: https://haverproducts.com/charts-of-the-week/
Thursday Feb 01, 2024
1 Feb 2024: Seeing Red and Green
Thursday Feb 01, 2024
Thursday Feb 01, 2024
Incoming data have reinforced a soft landing narrative in financial markets over the past few days. And although there was some push back from the Fed against expectations that it might begin cutting policy rates as soon as March, there was equally little to challenge the idea that a pivot toward looser monetary policy will shortly emerge. In our charts this week we home in on:
· Data surprises and equity markets
· Euro area inflation
· The Indian economy
· Global semiconductor sales
· Supply chain bottlenecks
· US household balance sheets
Thursday Jan 25, 2024
Lingering Concerns
Thursday Jan 25, 2024
Thursday Jan 25, 2024
Lingering tensions in the Middle East are now adversely affecting shipping costs and raising concerns about the durability of global supply chains. Recent commentary and some data points, in the meantime, have also been casting more doubt on the willingness of central banks to swiftly pivot toward looser monetary policy. In our charts this week we focus on:
· Global shipping costs
· Euro area banking conditions
· The UK manufacturing sector
· Equity markets in Japan and China
· China’s economy
· The Bank of Japan
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